[asterisk-users] any possibility of Vonage Integration

[Matthew Rubenstein]

On Wed, 2006-12-06 at 05:41 -0700,
asterisk-users-request at lists.digium.com wrote:
> Date: Wed, 6 Dec 2006 12:21:12 +0200
> From: "Dovid B" <asteriskusers at dovid.net>
> Subject: Re: [asterisk-users] any possibility of Vonage Integration
> To: "Asterisk Users Mailing List - Non-Commercial Discussion"
>         <asterisk-users at lists.digium.com>
> Message-ID: <019b01c71920$4a219070$972cfea9 at DovidLaptop>
> Content-Type: text/plain; format=flowed; charset="iso-8859-1";
>         reply-type=original
> 
> <snip>
> > Don't be fooled by the flat rates of the locked-box providers.
> > The real rates are so low these days most people pay less paying
> > per minute than paying a Vonage style flat rate.  In addition
> > people report if you start making really heavy usage of your
> > Vonage flat rate so that they are losing money on you, they notice
> > and try to stop it.
> >
> > $25/month will buy you close to 50 hours of urban SIP termination,
> > it's down to half a cent in some of the big cities.   Are you
> > going to average 50 hours on the phone each month?   Some people
> > do, but most don't.   (Otherwise Vonage could not even pretend it is
> > going to make money.)
> <./snip>
> 
> Like any other provider, look at Vonage's tos agreement. If you go
> over I 
> believe 100 hours they slap you with a $50.00 fee. I have a provider
> that I 
> pay $5.00 a month to for my did and they asked me to use up to 2-3
> channels 
> for incoming, however they never capped me. Once in a while I use up
> to 7-8 
> channels with no problem. ( I tested once with all the cell phones
> that I 
> had and I got 10 channels at once !!). As for outbound I use voipjet
> which 
> is 1.3 cents. Like it was said above if you do the math it may be
> worth it 
> for you to drop vonage all together. 

	I'm doing the math to find where Vonage and generic directly compete.
If someone can check it to find any typo noise that I amplified with
successive calculations, or other mistakes, I'd love to be corrected.
But even on pure minutes, Vonage looks better than generic in the "sweet
spots".

	At $0.01:minute for each leg of US48 termination with a generic brand
provider, $25:mo buys 41h:40m generic, or 20h:50m of 2-party calls
generic. 100h generic would cost $120. If Vonage charges $25 for up to
99h:59m, that's already a savings of $94.99 (over 79% off). If Vonage
charges $50 penalty at 100h, that's $75 for 100h, still $45 off (37.5%
off). If that's the highest penalty threshold, then at the possible
maximum (31d*24h*60m = 44,640m or 744h) monthly minutes would cost
$892.80 generic, a maximum savings of $817.80 (over 91.5% off) at
Vonage. Average monthly 43,830m or 730h:30m is $876.60 generic, so $75
Vonage save $801.60 (over 91% off). $24.99 buys 20h:49m generic, beating
Vonage; Vonage is always cheaper than generic above that duration.

Cheaper @$0.02:min 2-party calls:
00h:01m-20h:49m generic
20h:50m+ Vonage


	If minutes cost $0.005:minute per leg generic brand, $25 buys 41h:40m
generic, 99h:59m Vonage. 100h generic is $60,  Vonage is $75, so Vonage
costs $15 more (125% of generic; generic is 20% off). $75 buys 125h
generic, but up to 744h Vonage (730h:30m average monthly). $74.99 buys
124h:59m generic, but nothing more at Vonage than the 99h:59m that $25
buys. So at that half-cent minute rate, 41h:39m and less costs less than
Vonage's minimum $25 (where $0.005 more buys you 99h59m). And generic is
cheaper than Vonage for total average monthly usage from
100h:00m-124h:59m, from $0.01-$15 cheaper (from just over 0.01% to 20%
off Vonage).

Cheaper @$0.01:min 2-party calls:
00h:01m-41h:39m generic
41h:40m-99h:59m Vonage
100h:00m-124h:59m generic
125h+ Vonage


	Those values exclude the extra Vonage benefits, including their ATA
(not necessarily a benefit locked down) and their 24x7 service, which is
better than nothing. A second channel (with a 2nd DID) costs less than
the first, so the savings are greater, probably wiping out the window of
generic superiority. 3-way calling is cheaper, potentially beating
generic by at least 33%. And Vonage offers faxing that works (better
than Asterisk's), and I believe their 800# DIDs are cheaper. When adding
all the countries Vonage has added to their flat rate calling area
(including US50, not just US48), even Vonage's simple minutes charges
are better.

	Which probably means that the generic minutes cost is higher than it
needs to be. Probably mostly inefficiencies in the provider/consumer
market, higher sales transaction costs (including less actuarized risks)
among more reseller layers than necessary. Vonage statistically
oversubscribes all those $25:100h transatlantic accounts, subsidizing
them with most people calling within their areacode maxxing out at below
30-60h ($18-36 generic @$0.005:min, or $27) each month. Or it's all just
a stock scam to enrich Jeffrey Citron with another Bubble-type equity
sale on a losing business, which a lot of people are saying. But the
competition will still drive generic minutes rates lower, especially
outside US48 where $0.01:min is rare, even shocking.
-- 

(C) Matthew Rubenstein