[asterisk-biz] Google's voice product [OT]

Tue Mar 17 15:47:14 CDT 2009

I forgot to mention: as the number of users on this service increases, google's actual cost actually DECREASES, because they don't have to put calls back out onto the PSTN as users of the service call each other.

It's the same reason that the amount of storage on gmail keeps increasing at such an astronomical rate. Google only has to store one copy of each email, so as users forward that email to 1000 other gmail users, google still only has one copy in its database. It's an incredible model when you really think about it: where else does overhead decrease as usage increases? I'm sure they're installing new hard drives, but not nearly at the rate it would appear they are based on the increasing number on gmail's homepage.

--Dave

-----Original Message-----
From: asterisk-biz-bounces at lists.digium.com [mailto:asterisk-biz-bounces at lists.digium.com] On Behalf Of Garrett Smith
Sent: Tuesday, March 17, 2009 4:19 PM
To: Commercial and Business-Oriented Asterisk Discussion
Subject: Re: [asterisk-biz] Google's voice product [OT]

Google voice is not a business. It's a feature of a greater offering that may or may not come.

You have to look at Google voice in the context of what Google is - an advertising company that wants to be a commerce company. To think that Google has ambitions past bolstering and or protecting their main income streams (ads) is far fetched at best.

In order for Google to continue to drive ad revenues they need more advertisers. To do this they need to make it easier to create something that requires advertising (I.E. an online business).

Slowly but surely Google is piecing together all of the components an entrepreneur or existing offline business needs to do business online. Sort of what eBay tried to do (but is failing at with) PayPal and Skype.

Google offers a way to make a site (Sites), optimize it for search (Site optimizer, webmaster tools), advertise it (Adwords, Ad manager), track performance (Analytics) and take payments (Google checkout). Now sprinkle in hosted productivity and collaboration products like Google docs, and way to communicate (Google Voice, Google talk) you've got all of need to launch a basic business online.

Today these all look like disparate offerings, but when put together they actually fit together well.

Can Google execute on this? Don't know. That's their problem.

But don't expect them to be a VoIP/voice provider in any traditional sense.

Worse case they'll use Google voice as a way to cover the black hole created by online leads that are converted offline. Like what Ifbyphone is doing with their call tracking services (http://public.ifbyphone.com/services/call-tracking).

It's a big problem for many marketers. Many of which would spend more if they new where all of their revenues were coming from.

Garrett Smith

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-----Original Message-----
From: asterisk-biz-bounces at lists.digium.com [mailto:asterisk-biz-bounces at lists.digium.com] On Behalf Of Peter Beckman
Sent: Tuesday, March 17, 2009 1:46 PM
To: Commercial and Business-Oriented Asterisk Discussion
Subject: Re: [asterisk-biz] Google's voice product [OT]

On Tue, 17 Mar 2009, SIP wrote:

> The Pogue article is, as to be expected, gushingly lavish with Google
> praise.
>
> Which leads me to a question:  how is this envisioned in the world of
> consumer VoIP (is anyone even still IN that business) ?  The article
> mentions that the entire service, single number, VoIP calling,
> transcription services, etc. will be completely free and ad-free. Where,
> then, is the business plan?

  I'm sure there will be "Pro" features for a monthly fee, or they will make
  enough money on International Minutes.  They might eventually include
  advertising.

  There are many things Google offers that don't cost you cash, but they
  monetize it.  VoIP is making the telephony world a commodity, and it
  continues to get cheaper.

  Some of the things Google is doing will flow down to us, hopefully that
  includes SMS abilities on SIP-delivered originated DIDs.  Since Google has
  done it, they've set a precedent.

> With its constant marketing steamroller, and its massive brand
> recognition, I don't see, honestly, how 95% of the non-facilities-based
> consumer voice products out there will stand up to it.

  Google Voice fits a niche -- people who are willing to give up what has
  been their primary number for years and get a new number, and then give
  that out to everyone, and hope that in a year or two Google doesn't shut
  down this little venture that nobody paid for and nobody seems to be able
  to match.

  It's not home phone service.  It's not a business IVR.  It is for the
  individual to manage their calls.  They don't know it's VoIP, or if they
  do, they don't care or don't know what that means.  It works for them, and
  that's great.

  Remember -- there's a company down the street quietly doing $20M annual
  revenue for some obscure, I-never-thought-of-that business.  We small fry
  do NOT compete with Google, we can't.  We provide unique services and find
  the customers that like and need what we provide, and we do a nice
  business for ourselves and our employees (and maybe our investors).

> But how long will it be the way it is now -- free of charge for basic
> services and ad-free? Is this a first salvo to slaughter the competition
> as cleanly as possible before the shift in business models? I don't see
> how even Google could sustain a product of this complexity and sheer
> cost without SOME method of making that cost back, and if common models
> of free to pay business marketing have taught us anything, it's that you
> can't build a sustainable business model around a service which is
> primarily free except for a few bits and pieces that might cost if
> people bother to use them.

  They will monetize it.  Maybe it will be advertising, but maybe it's just
  to see how many people sign up and actually use it.  I've had my account
  for a few years now, but I don't use it.  I never was ready to give up
  control of my telephony to an unpaid service.

  But Google will find a way to monetize Google Voice, directly or
  indirectly, or will shutter it like Google Notebook in a few years.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Peter Beckman                                                  Internet Guy
beckman at angryox.com                                 http://www.angryox.com/
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

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